For decades, the presidential election hasn’t been very suspenseful.

All 77 counties in the reliably red state have voted for the Republican presidential candidate since 2004. The last Republican candidate to get less than 65% of the vote was George Bush in 2000. 

Though the presidential election will likely be lopsided, there will be plenty to watch on election night, including the outcome of several legislative races and two state questions. 

Here are some things I’ll be watching for election night: 

How Does Harris Perform in Urban Areas?

Kamala Harris is a longshot to win the state, but it’s reasonable to predict she could take a county. 

President Joe Biden came within 3,326 votes of winning Oklahoma County in 2020, outperforming Hillary Clinton by a 7% margin. Biden also performed better than Clinton in Cleveland and Tulsa counties, though Trump still won by double digits. 

A win in Oklahoma County would be a moral victory for the Democratic party, and could boost down-ballot candidates in state and local races. 

Do Voters Approve Both State Questions? 

State Question 834, which proposes changing the state constitution to explicitly exclude noncitizens from voting in state and local elections, appears poised for a landslide victory. Similar ballot measures have passed by double-digit margins in nine other states. 

The fate of State Question 833, which proposes authorizing municipal public infrastructure districts, is murkier. Some conservative Republicans have criticized it as a potential tax increase, while Democrats have questioned if it would benefit wealthy developers more than homeowners. 

The Yes on 833 campaign has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to sway voters to check yes, arguing that Oklahoma will lose development opportunities to Dallas or Kansas City if the financing mechanism isn’t approved. 

How Do Suburban Legislative Races Fare? 

The Republican-controlled Legislature is poised to keep its supermajority, but Democrats in the suburbs are trying to chip away at the advantage. 

As I reported last week, legislative races in places like South Tulsa and Northwest Oklahoma City are garnering the most political spending and attention. Education is a top issue in these districts, as Democrats seek to tie their Republican opponents to controversial Secretary of Public Instruction Ryan Walters. 

What will you be keeping an eye on during election night? Let me know at Kross@Oklahomawatch.org.

— Keaton Ross

Recommended Reading

• Oklahoma chief information officer resigned after entering settlement agreement over ethics rules: Paul L. “Joe” McIntosh resigned Oct. 20 from his post with the Office of Management and Enterprise Services, where he earned $235,000 a year. The settlement agreement said the case involved ethics rules that address state officer impartiality and the misuse of office by a state officer.. [Oklahoma Voice]
• Anonymous groups are spending big in Oklahoma Supreme Court justice retention races: Outside groups have spent at least $3.4 million leading up to the vote on whether to keep three state Supreme Court justices. That amount is expected to grow in the days leading up to Election Day. [The Frontier]
• Hern, Brecheen, Cole and Bice face challengers in Oklahoma congressional races: Many challengers have noted that all of five Oklahoma’s representatives voted against certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election. [NonDoc]

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