Happy New Year!
From far-reaching policy decisions to hotly contested elections, there promises to be no shortage of Oklahoma news to follow in 2026.
Here’s a look at five political storylines to follow in 2026:
Who Emerges From a Crowded Field of Republican Gubernatorial Candidates?
With Gov. Kevin Stitt terming out, it’s a free-for-all to become the Republican candidate for governor.
Six candidates, most of them with prior elected experience, have announced their Republican candidacy for governor, according to Ballotpedia. The official filing period begins in April, with the primary set for June 16. In all likelihood, the race will continue to a runoff on Aug. 25.
Initial polling shows Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former Speaker of the House Charles McCall in the lead, but a lot can change between now and June. Gov. Kevin Stitt was a relative unknown at a similar point in the 2018 election cycle.
Whoever emerges from the primary will be the odds-on favorite to become governor. A Democrat hasn’t come within a 10-point margin in nearly two decades.
Will Voters Approve Any Ballot Initiatives?
For the first time since 2023, voters will weigh in on a citizen-led ballot initiative in June.
State Question 832 proposes incrementally raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2029. Its proponents collected enough signatures in 2024, but Stitt opted to schedule it for the next available statewide election in 2026.
Backers of State Question 836, which proposes implementing a top-two jungle primary system, also hope to get their petition on the ballot sometime in 2026. They face a Jan. 26 deadline to collect about 173,000 signatures.
The fate of the ballot initiatives could signal the appetite of Oklahoma’s electorate for progressive-leaning policies. Medicaid expansion, legalized medical marijuana and criminal justice reform were all enacted through the ballot initiative process, though it’s now been over five years since such an effort was successful.
How Will Legislative Incumbents Fare?
The 2024 primary season brought several surprises, including the ouster of former House Budget Chairman Kevin Wallace and Sen. Greg McCortney, who was on track to lead the Senate.
As my colleague Paul Monies reported last week, grassroots Republican angst is brewing once again ahead of the 2026 elections. Established legislative leaders could once again face primary challenges from the right.
Can Democrats Gain Any Ground?
It’s been a tough run for Oklahoma Democrats, who haven’t won a statewide election since 2006.
House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson is aiming to pull off the upset for governor, focusing on issues like public education funding and healthcare costs. She’s joined by four other Democratic candidates who have announced their intent to run for statewide office, according to the party’s website.
The party has struggled to recruit and retain state legislative candidates in recent election cycles, but says that will be a priority in 2026.
Will the Legislature Take Action on Rising Homeowners’ Insurance Rates?
Lawmakers have gotten an earful over rising homeowners’ insurance rates, which outpace increases in neighboring states like Texas and Kansas.
As J.C. Hallman reported, the Oklahoma Insurance Department is pushing a package of bills it says will increase competition and fairness. But some lawmakers and observers say the proposals would make it more difficult for homeowners to fight back against insurance companies.
Have thoughts on these topics, or another story idea you think Oklahoma Watch should pursue? Let me know at Kross@Oklahomawatch.org.
— Keaton Ross
Recommended Reading
- Lawmakers to consider funding options for mental health help line: As demand for crisis services grows, legislators are considering dedicated state appropriations or fees to maintain the 988 mental health hotline. [Oklahoma Voice]
- Oklahoma lawmaker will try again to slow state’s eviction timeline, which includes holidays: Senate Minority Leader Julia Kirt, D-Oklahoma City, plans to reintroduce legislation that would lengthen Oklahoma’s eviction process, which is among the fastest in the nation. Previous efforts failed amid opposition from landlords and business groups. [The Frontier]
- Oklahoma board forecasts $12 billion budget for upcoming fiscal year: State budget officials project Oklahoma will have roughly $12 billion available for the next fiscal year, reflecting steady revenue growth despite economic uncertainty. Lawmakers are expected to debate how much to reserve versus spend on priorities like education, infrastructure and tax relief. [KOSU]
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